The National Election Data Archive’s paper analyzing the Ohio exit poll data has been temporarily withdrawn due to an error in the assumed definition of data given in the ESI report. In other words, NEDA’s Ron Baiman incorrectly assumed that ESI …
NEDA retracts Ohio Exit Poll Analsysis
November 03, 2005
The National Election Data Archive’s paper analyzing the Ohio exit poll data has been temporarily withdrawn due to an error in the assumed definition of data given in the ESI report. In other words, NEDA’s Ron Baiman incorrectly assumed that ESI was giving the maximum and minimum of “vote” counts in its table of exit poll data, and ESI was actually giving the maximum and minimum of “exit poll results” if all non-responders to the exit poll in its sample had hypothetically completed the polls.
A solid independent analysis of Ohio’s exit poll studies still must be done. Earlier the Election Science Institute’s analysis of its Ohio exit poll data has been mathematically proven to be invalid. http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-polls/ESI/ESI-hypothesis-illogical.pdf
NEDA’s analysis, using the corrected definition of “non-responders” will be redone and reposted – but our volunteer schedules do not permit us to do this soon.
A copy of ESI’s data can be found here. NEDA welcomes any independent analysis of this Ohio exit poll data.
If you would like to be notified when NEDA’s paper is re-released, please email either:
We apologize for any inconvenience our error may have caused.
Kathy Dopp, firstname.lastname@example.org
National Election Data Archive, President
This public withdrawal of our Ohio exit poll analysis paper can be found at: http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/OH/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf
FURTHER Clarification on our withdrawal
On November 2, 2005, NEDA released an analysis of the 2004 precinct level Ohio exit poll data entitled “The Gun is Smoking: Ohio Exit Poll Data Provides Virtually Irrefutable Evidence of Vote Miscount”. The analysis used data provided in the Election Sciences Institute (ESI) report of June 6, 2005.
On November 3, 2005 NEDA realized that its interpretation of the definition for the term “nonresponders” to the exit poll, as used by ESI, was incorrect.
What this means is most likely that the Ohio exit poll data is:
1. inconsistent with voter exit poll response explanations as put forth wrongly by Mitofsky in his Jan 19th paper
2. highly suspicious and very consistent with vote fraud explanations
but does "not" contain "virtually irrefutable" evidence of vote fraud.
In a positive sense, notice that NEDA withdrew its incorrect analysis within 24 hours, whereas ESI and Mitofsky, whose analysis has clearly been proven mathematically to be balderdash, has yet to show the integrity to withdraw its own analysis, which it has wrongfully let stand since June, and presented in October to the American Statistical Association fall conference in Philadelphia.
Anyone who has used our press release from yesterday, please substitute this press release instead:
It is very important to get the word out that the Mitofsky/ESI analyses are bunk.
This above math proof still stands as 100% correct, has been reviewed by PhD mathematicians and physicists, and the "under construction" in its appendix should be removed from the appendix as we’ve checked it and found it correct.